These provide a good critique of Richard Carrier’s views on Bayes’s theorem and Bayesian probability theory as applied to historical probabilities and historical argument:
“A Mathematical Review of ‘Proving History’ by Richard Carrier,” Irreducible Complexity, September 8, 2012.
“Error in Bayes’s Theorem,” October 11, 2012.
“An Introduction to Probability Theory and Why Bayes’s Theorem is Unhelpful in History,” September 12, 2012.
Richard Carrier has a response here:
Richard Carrier, “Understanding Bayesian History,” Richard Carrier Blogs, October 9, 2012.
